Newsletter | June 2025
The US Congress has passed a tax bill that will boost the budget deficit.
7.2% PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN MID-CAP INDEX IN MAY
Investment perspective
Geopolitical and economic factors persisted in May, most notably the ongoing impact of punitive tariffs introduced by the U.S. administration in early April, which continued to reverberate across global markets. Although temporary tariff reprieves have calmed the situation, the fundamental direction of US trade policy remains restrictive, with the potential for further escalation or prolonged uncertainty, which could affect global growth and inflation. This dual pressure complicates monetary policy, especially for the Federal Reserve, and affects market expectations. As we pointed out earlier this year, divergent monetary policies have become the norm. The uncertainty induced by the tariffs led the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while the European Central Bank (ECB) remained on its path of gradual easing. Overall, this could result in higher terminal U.S. interest rates due to reduced capital inflows and an increased risk premium. This dynamic could further steepen the yield curve as investors demand higher compensation for heightened uncertainty. After credit spreads widened sharply, the 90-day tariff reprieve for certain countries eased some fears partly, leading to a retracement in credit spreads. U.S. investment grade (IG) corporate spreads tightened from 116 basis points (bps) in early April to roughly 88 bps by the end of May, while U.S. high yield (HY) corporate spreads narrowed from 450 bps to 315 bps. Following a sharp sell-off in early April, during which the primary U.S. index fell by over 10.5% in two days, May saw a strong recovery in the equity markets. The Magnificent Seven experienced a notable rebound during the month, as did heavy tech-weighted and growth-oriented indices. Nvidia and Tesla led the way with impressive returns of around +24.1% and +22.8%, respectively, in May. Despite the headwinds encountered in the early part of the year, the Magnificent Seven have demonstrated resilient earnings growth. Goldman Sachs projects earnings per share growth for the group of around 28% in 2025, which is significantly higher than the expected 9% growth of the broader market index. The bank also noted that the group is currently trading at its lowest valuation levels in two years, which could present an attractive entry point. The U.S. dollar has registered weakness against the euro for the fourth consecutive month. However, the pressure eased somewhat with a loss of 0.4%, bringing the year-to-date loss to over 9%.
Investment strategy
Although market sentiment has improved with the recovery in consumer confidence and a slight easing of tariff fears, the complexity of fiscal and trade dynamics remains. The outlook for the U.S. fiscal deficit has deteriorated significantly, with the Congressional Budget Office and Fitch Ratings projecting deficits in excess of 7.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. A comprehensive tax and spending bill that is currently making its way through the Senate is expected to increase the debt by trillions, with little prospect of significant spending cuts. This fiscal deterioration is putting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, as evidenced by the recent 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since October 2023. Market sentiment continues to be affected by instability in trade policy, with the risk that tariff-related disruptions will impact key economic indicators such as GDP and corporate earnings. Nevertheless, recent signs of recovery in US consumer confidence could bolster domestic demand. In light of the fiscal outlook and the increasing supply of long-dated Treasuries, we are exercising particular caution regarding the long end of the curve and are favouring the front end to mitigate the risk of further yield increases. Market sentiment indicators have shown a swift and significant recovery from the extreme pessimism observed in April. This recovery in sentiment has coincided with a rebound in growth and technology stocks, including the 'Magnificent Seven', suggesting that momentum remains a key driver.
Fed is facing the possibility of both higher inflation and weaker economic performance
Portfolio Activity/ News
Over the month, our portfolios benefited significantly from the market recovery, particularly in terms of our equity and credit allocations. We maintained our exposure to European and US credit, encompassing investment grade (IG), high yield (HY) and emerging corporate bonds, while continuing to exercise caution regarding long-maturity bonds, particularly in the US. Despite the very different dynamics at play in Europe, the risk of the curve steepening further has led us to reduce our exposure to long-term government bonds and retain only intermediate-term bonds. Although we marginally increased our equity allocation, adding US growth and emerging market exposure, we maintained a structural preference for European equities, driven by attractive valuations and supportive monetary policy dynamics. European assets are well placed to benefit from the unfolding US fiscal agenda and shifting allocations away from US assets, which are still under-represented in most portfolios, as well as from gradual dollar depreciation. Having tactically increased our equity exposure earlier in the month, we are now adopting a slightly more cautious approach, as market sentiment indicators have swung rapidly from deeply depressed levels to mild complacency. We are increasingly inclined to reduce our US dollar exposure further, anticipating that the deteriorating fiscal deficit and persistent economic uncertainty will weigh on the currency. However, we believe it is still too early to reduce risk across the entire portfolio, as the recovery is ongoing and we are positioned only slightly overweight.
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Newsletter | May 2025
The IMF has cut its growth forecast for global economic growth this year to 2.8%, compared with 3.3% in January
25.3% PERFORMANCE OF GOLD SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
Investment perspective
April will be remembered as the month of tit-for-tat tariffs, with the dramatic announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Indeed, on 2 April, the US President announced the details of these reciprocal tariffs. Although widely expected, they came as a surprise because of their magnitude (10% base tariff from 5 April + additional tariff equal to half the ratio of the US bilateral trade deficit divided by US imports from 9 April). The announcement of 34% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports prompted China to impose 34% tariffs on US goods on 4 April. On 9 April, Trump hit China with an additional 85% levy on all imports, bringing the total to 104%. On the same day, China announced retaliatory tariffs of 84% on imports of US goods, further escalating the trade war between the world's two largest economies. On the same day, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to at least 145% before announcing a 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs, except for China. On 11 April, China raised its retaliatory tariffs on US imports to 125%. These punitive tariffs are undoubtedly a bargaining chip in negotiations with US trading partners, and the tariffs ultimately imposed after negotiations may be less severe. However, the risk of escalation will ultimately weigh on economic growth and reignite fears of a resurgence in inflation. This recessionary scenario (more than 60% probability at Goldman Sachs) of tariffs has triggered a sharp downturn in financial markets, with the US dollar being a large casualty. Perhaps in response to the market turmoil caused by the growing risk of recession and a sharp tightening of financial conditions, the US President has announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. The delay in implementation and the possibility of a more favourable negotiated agreement than the announced tariffs allowed markets to breathe a sigh of relief. This return to relative calm after an unprecedented shock allowed the main stock market indices to record a minimal decline of 0.5% for US equities in US dollar terms, with the Magnificent Seven even rising 0.7% over the month, and European equities in euro terms falling 0.8%. The cut in global growth forecasts led to a sharp fall in the oil price, which fell 18.6% over the month. In contrast to credit and equity markets, the US dollar did not follow this rally and fell 4.5% against the euro in April, following an already 4.1% decline in March.
Investment strategy
After a month of extreme uncertainty, as evidenced by the rise in volatility indices across all asset classes, the month ended on a note of optimism thanks to the de-escalation announcements from the White House. The disruption caused by Trump's tariff hikes has reduced the potential for American exceptionalism to continue. The attempt to reshape global trade by imposing tariffs on all US imports has increased the risk of a global economic slowdown and the perceived risk of a US recession. Economists have cut their global growth forecasts, with the median down to 2.7% from 3.0% in January. This turmoil, caused by Trump's policies but also by uncertainty about future relations with an unpredictable administration, sent markets into a sharp correction. In total, the Magnificent Seven lost $2.3 trillion in value since 21 January, the day after Donald Trump's inauguration, with $1 trillion lost on inauguration day alone. Are we witnessing a bear-market rally (usually fast and sharp), or the start of a new secular cycle following a temporary shock, in this case tariffs, fuelled by a prolonged artificial intelligence cycle? This is not a trivial question, as a pause in trade tensions has contributed to the recent rally in risk assets. A shift away from the original tariffs could indeed prolong the rally, although the economic impact will be felt in upcoming economic data. Since 1950, the US equity market has experienced 19 peakto-trough drawdowns of more than 15%. The current correction is mild compared to previous recessionary periods.
“Analysts Are Calling for Earnings Growth Rates of 6.4%, 8.8%, and 8.3% for Q2 2005 to Q4 2025"
Portfolio Activity/ News
After intense activity in the first quarter, which led us to substantially reduce equity and dollar exposure in our portfolios, we decided to leave our positioning unchanged in April. We remain neutral on equities, with a bias towards European assets at the expense of the US. This positioning has helped our portfolios to mitigate the impact of the sharp fall in the US currency, while capturing the strong outperformance of European assets since the beginning of the year. It should be noted that we may consider reducing this directional bias if a more constructive return on large US technology companies is confirmed. We have started this rotation towards more technology-focused content with a more global positioning, which proved profitable during the rally in the second half of April. We are also encouraged by the results and the constructive commentary accompanying the earnings releases, confirming continued investment and demand in the artificial intelligence sector. We have maintained our bond convictions, namely a preference for European duration, a clear path to the front end of the curve and a broad credit exposure across all sectors and geographies. In this uncertain environment, we believe it is essential to seek resilience through a large, uncorrelated and high-performing alternative allocation. While volatility has reached high levels, so too has the dispersion of performance across alternative segments. Our position selection and sizing have been prudent and have been rewarded in terms of performance. We are maintaining our positions and plan to increase the weighting of this type of strategy through new additions. We recognise the strategic stabilising role of gold but acknowledge that a return to a risk-on market environment and a correction cannot be ruled out, which would offer more attractive entry levels.
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Newsletter | April 2025
The Swiss National Bank cuts its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25 per cent in March
11.4% PERFORMANCE OF COPPER
Investment perspective
We have an almost unanimous consensus that recent soft data, such as surveys, are pointing to a likely deterioration in US growth, while the reported growth and inflation releases have been in line with expectations at the start of the year. What will happen if the figures confirm the negative impact of the new US administration's economic policies on both growth and inflation? Even if many economists have already revised their forecasts for US growth, indicators following economic surprises do not seem to show any major deterioration. However, we are back in a world where many forecasters are predicting a US recession within two years with a probability of more than 30%. While political uncertainty reigns in the United States, from tariffs to possible major cuts in government spending, the rest of the world, and Europe in particular, is showing renewed optimism. This more constructive attitude towards economies outside the United States stems from an easier reading of economic policies that could have lasting structural effects on growth. The lack of investments has for years undermined the attractiveness and competitiveness of the eurozone. The announcement of substantial spending plans to address, among other things, the vulnerability of supply sources and defence needs is undeniably encouraging investors, as the rally in European markets and the euro seems to confirm. We believe that we are on the verge of significant flows into European assets, due to the under-representation of the zone in portfolios, but above all sustainable because of the structural measures taken by the European authorities in relation to assets outside the United States. Certainly, the movements since the beginning of the year have opened investors' eyes to the degree of concentration of their portfolio due to the dominance of an ever-smaller number of significant contributors to performance and the imperative need to increase their exposure outside the US. As at the end of the 1990s, so-called ‘value’ assets such as Europe may remain in the penalty box for longer than anticipated but can prove to be very profitable in the event of a lasting turnaround, as US equities have been since the great financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Investment strategy
The next few days will be crucial, with important announcements on tariffs that will provide more clarity on the real impact on growth and inflation. These clarifications can help provide a clearer picture of the new policy framework, which markets, consumers and producers desperately need in order to operate with confidence. As a discounting mechanism, financial markets have already priced in these uncertainties and are now awaiting the announcements with some trepidation to understand the real impact of these new tariffs. In this context, economic growth has been revised downwards and is now expected to be around 1.5%, compared with over 2% at the end of 2024. Despite their one-off effect, the tariffs and their countermeasures will push up consumer prices by almost 3.5% year-on-year. Similarly, downward revisions to US economic growth and S&P 500 earnings growth estimates have been swift. Indeed, higher tariffs will not only hurt growth, but also lead to a new surge in inflation, which could negatively impact the earnings potential of many companies. Earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 have been revised sharply downwards from over 10%, with the consensus now expecting low single-digit earnings growth in 2025. The US equity market is the most exposed to the deteriorating economic environment, with the spectre of recession looming. Historically, US equities have fallen around 25% from their peak during recessions.
“35% Probability That the US Economy Enters a Recession During the Next 12 Months” (GS)
Portfolio Activity/ News
The US administration's flip-flops on economic policy, in particular tariffs, influenced our portfolio activity, which was higher than usual. We started 2025 with an equity bias. However, in the first half of January, we considered it appropriate to reduce our risk for the first time and then to reduce the equity allocation in several steps to an underweight position by mid-March, compared to a near maximum overweight position at the end of December 2024. At the same time, we rotated more towards European equities and away from US equities due to their high valuation, strong performance and growing uncertainties about American exceptionalism. This proved productive as European equities (+5.9% in euro terms) outperformed US equities (-4.6% in US dollar terms). In addition, the euro gained 4.5% against the US dollar following the announcement of a fiscal turnaround in Germany. In euro terms, the difference between the two markets in the first quarter was 15%. After a sharp correction of more than 10% in 22 days (the 6th fastest correction in the last 75 years), while conscious of the risks associated with the tariff announcements of 2 April, we returned our equity allocation to neutral and strengthened our bond allocation by increasing our exposure to emerging
market corporates. We continue to favour credit (investment grade and high yield) and European bonds (interest rate sensitivity around 6 years) due to their solid fundamentals, better future growth prospects and attractive carry. In these uncertain times, an allocation to so-called alternative strategies can have a crucial stabilising and risk-reducing effect. We currently favour macro and alternative trend-following strategies.
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A Collaborative Culture is the Winning Formula
We are delighted to be the recipient of three WealthBriefing accolades for 2025. Forum Finance has evolved over the last 30 years to become one of the leading EAMs in the Swiss market. With assets under management close to CHF2bn and 26 employees we rank among the top 3% of actors in the Swiss market.
What was the winning formula of your firm that explains why you won the awards?
We are very grateful to the independent panel of judges for their diligent work and could not be more delighted with our three awards. These awards are a real testament to our consistent investment and planning for the company over many years. Our winning formula may be the combination of our focus on how we can best serve our clients and how we can best inspire our employees. We have done so by engendering a highly collaborative and equitable culture at Forum Finance – something so very different from a cost-sharing or platform model. This however requires a generous spirit among our partners and employees, where everyone is incentivised and keen for the company as a whole to do well. The effects of this collaborative culture are very much felt by our clients and provides much better outcomes for everyone.
Newsletter | March 2025
The ECB cuts interest rates to 2.5% as inflation in Europe is under control
-8.7% PERFORMANCE OF THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Investment perspective
The outstanding feature of the beginning of this year has undoubtedly been the remarkable performance of European equities compared with US equities. The former are up 10.3% in euro terms, while the latter are effectively flat. Investors had emphasised American exceptionalism as a source of explanation for the incredible returns of US equities, leading to a degree of concentration that many considered to be a potentially unsustainable trend. The rotation in market leadership coincided with a shift in focus from expensive global technology names, which are by nature more global and potentially negatively affected by a full-blown trade war, to cheaper and beaten-down sectors, regions and stocks such as Europe. At a macro level, the new US tariff policy of, for example, 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on Chinese imports has kept political and economic commentators on their toes. Not only does it mark a clear break with current doctrine, but it is also a major source of uncertainty that could, like Covid, cause significant damage to supply chains. The announcement of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, following the debacle of the White House meeting and the failure to sign an agreement on mining resources, has provoked a wave of indignation from the major European countries, both in style and in substance. The breakdown in transatlantic trust could serve as a signal to Europe. Moreover, it seems that Europe is ready to take up the challenge of a US retreat in the Ukrainian conflict and to reaffirm its unwavering support for the Ukrainian cause. The outcome of the German elections is a source of optimism. Indeed, we could soon see announcements of a major investment plan and an easing of budgetary constraints. These investments are crucial for Europe's competitiveness and should provide a tailwind for European growth. In the bond markets, the favourable trend in credit continued, with a slight easing in US 10-year rates. In commodities, oil prices fell by around 3.8% in WTI terms, while gold rose by 2.1% in US dollar terms. The latter remained stable against the major European currencies over the month.
Investment strategy
Merz's conservatives won Germany's election by a comfortable margin over rival parties. The other big winner was the far-right AfD, with a record 20.8% of the vote. The coalition agreement with the Social Democrats was followed by the announcement of an unprecedented fiscal plan that exempts defence spending from the debt brake and includes a €500bn fund for infrastructure spending over the next 10 years. While the proposal still needs to be passed by parliament later this month, the historic U-turn on public spending has been felt in financial markets, sending the euro and government borrowing costs higher. This radical departure from the obsession with debt sustainability, coupled with a clearer ECB policy thanks to moderating inflation and the prospect, albeit still distant, of a ceasefire in Ukraine, continues to support European equities. The publication of weak US economic figures and a deterioration in consumer confidence, linked to the growing uncertainties associated with the decisions of the new Republican administration, have revived fears in the markets, whether legitimate or not, about economic growth. These fears about the future health of the US economy have led to a reduction in risk appetite and a flight to quality that has allowed 10-year US government bonds to fall from 4.8% in mid-January to below 4.30% despite persistent inflation.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick Hints at Possible Tariff Relief After Market Sell-Off
Portfolio Activity/ News
After convergence, we are entering an era of divergence and disruption in both form and substance. While nothing can be taken for granted, increased uncertainty will continue to weigh on markets and be a source of significant volatility, both up and down. Given the increased political uncertainty across the Atlantic, but also the persistence of high geopolitical tensions, we have continued to reduce our equity exposure. We continue to favour European equities. However, we are aware that the rise in European indices has been rapid and that a pause or a slight correction would be welcome to calmly consider the continuation of the upward trend. We are staying away from Japanese equities and maintaining a neutral stance on emerging markets. Reducing our exposure to US equities has also allowed us to reduce our exposure to the US dollar. As a reminder, we had more than 35% exposure to the US currency in the fourth quarter of 2024 and have gradually lowered it to around 20%. To take advantage of potential bouts of volatility, we are holding the proceeds of our equity sales in cash to mitigate the impact of any declines, but also to take advantage of any exaggerations. These reductions have brought our equity exposure to an underweight position. At the same time, we have increased our allocation to liquid alternative strategies to add resilience to our portfolios. We remain constructive on European yields, although we are not particularly pleased with the recent movement in German yields. We maintain our preference for European credit, where carry remains attractive, and fundamentals are strong.
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The Forum Finance Group gana tres premios en los WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2025
The Forum Finance Group gana tres premios en los WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2025
Ginebra, 6 de marzo de 2025 – La gestora independiente con sede en Ginebra, The Forum Finance Group SA, ha sido galardonada con tres importantes premios en la quinta edición de los WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2025. En particular, el jurado la ha distinguido en las categorías de «Activos bajo gestión superiores a CHF 1.000 millones«, «Selección de Fondos/Asignación de Activos» y «Equipo de Planificación Patrimonial«.
Anunciados durante la ceremonia de entrega celebrada anoche en Zúrich, estos galardones reconocen a las organizaciones financieras más destacadas de Suiza. Los premios han sido diseñados para distinguir a aquellas entidades que, según el prestigioso jurado independiente, han demostrado “innovación y excelencia durante el último año». Cada una de estas categorías es altamente competitiva y está sujeta a un riguroso proceso de selección antes de que los jueces determinen al ganador. Es precisamente este proceso lo que hace que los premios WealthBriefing sean tan valorados entre los galardonados. A nivel global, estos premios son ampliamente valorados por los participantes, especialmente en momentos desafiante, ya que transmiten a los clientes confianza en la estabilidad y sostenibilidad del modelo empresarial y operativo de su gestora de activos.
En cuanto a la categoría de mejor EAM suizo con activos bajo gestión superiores a CHF 1.000 millones, el jurado tomó su decisión destacando el «enfoque visionario de Forum Finance en regulación y planificación sucesoria. Con incorporaciones estratégicas de alto nivel, una cartera de clientes diversa y una apuesta por oportunidades emergentes como la inteligencia artificial, blockchain y la transición energética, la empresa representa un modelo de adaptación y crecimiento exitoso en un mercado en constante evolución».
Respecto a la categoría de Selección de Fondos/Asignación de Activos, el jurado seleccionó a The Forum Finance Group por «su excelencia en la selección de fondos y asignación de activos. Con más de 30 años de experiencia, los analistas del grupo evalúan minuciosamente una amplia gama de instrumentos de inversión para diseñar carteras personalizadas, garantizando rendimientos óptimos para cada cliente a través de un proceso de selección riguroso y resiliente».
En relación con el Equipo de Planificación Patrimonial, los jueces premiaron a The Forum Finance Group por «demostrar un compromiso excepcional con la planificación patrimonial a través de un equipo especializado interno. Su dedicación a ofrecer soluciones integrales de planificación patrimonial y fiscal, combinadas con estrategias personalizadas desarrolladas por expertos, los diferencia al proporcionar servicios de alta calidad adaptados a las complejas necesidades de sus clientes».
Hippolyte de Weck, Socio Director y CEO de The Forum Finance Group declaró: «Nos sentimos realmente honrados de que nuestras fortalezas y logros sean reconocidos con estos prestigiosos premios del sector. Durante los últimos 30 años, nuestra empresa ha crecido significativamente hasta convertirse en uno de los principales actores del mercado suizo. Estamos orgullosos de todo lo que el equipo de Forum Finance ha logrado. ¡Es nuestro espíritu de colaboración lo que realmente nos distingue!«.
De hecho, anticipándose a la evolución de la industria de la gestión patrimonial, The Forum Finance Group ha fortalecido su estructura y organización en los últimos años, como lo demuestra la licencia CISA otorgada por FINMA en 2015 y su registro como Investment Advisor en la SEC de EE.UU. en 2016. La empresa invierte constantemente en investigación, gestión de inversiones y asesoría patrimonial, así como en tecnología, lo que le permite responder eficazmente a las necesidades cambiantes de sus clientes.
Si desea más información, póngase en contacto con:
Egon Vorfeld
The Forum Finance Group SA
T: +41 (0)22 552 83 00
E: vorfeld@ffgg.com
ffgg.com
Sobre The Forum Finance Group
Fundada en 1994 en Ginebra, The Forum Finance Group ofrece servicios de banca privada y gestión de activos a una clientela mundial de alto nivel. Cuenta con 26 empleados que gestionan y supervisan unos 2.000 millones de CHF. La empresa está autorizada con la licencia CISA por la FINMA y está registrada en la SEC como Investment Advisor.
Los ganadores de los premios WealthBriefing son elegidos por un panel independiente de jueces, basándose únicamente en el mérito. Estos premios no están predeterminados y no pueden comprarse.
Newsletter | February 2025
As largely expected, the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points in January
+8.4% PERFORMANCE OF THE SWISS EQUITY INDEX
Investment perspective
The start of President Trump's second term was undoubtedly at the forefront of investors' minds, particularly his stance and actions on tariffs. The uncertainty did not prevent financial markets from posting significant gains in January, both in equity and credit markets, led by high yield. Bond yields rose to their highest level since May 2024 following the release of the employment data. Investors were again concerned that the strong US economy would eventually translate into inflationary pressures, leading to an upward revision of inflation expectations. As a result, the 10-year breakeven rate, a measure of expected future inflation, has risen from a low of 2.0% in early September last year to 2.4% at the end of January. As widely expected, the Fed kept rates on hold. For the rest of the year, the market is now pricing in only one rate cut in 2025, significantly less than a few months ago. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates for the fifth time, paving the way for further cuts in 2025. Finally, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key interest rate to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years. For many investors, the surprise at the start of the year was undoubtedly the performance of European equities, which had lagged badly until early December due to the region's sluggish growth momentum and trade tensions. As a result, the main European equity index rose by 6.5%, while the Swiss equity market stood out with a gain of 8.5% in the first month of the year. The US market closed broadly higher, but there was a lot of excitement after DeepSeek unveiled a new version of its large language model, reportedly developed at a fraction of the cost of the leading US models, which appears to be much more economical to run. The US dollar fluctuated on the new administration's tariff announcements but ended the month flat against the euro and Swiss franc. Gold and silver posted strong gains and remain close to all-time highs as Trump's trade tariffs continue to fuel fears of a global trade war and its impact on US inflation, supporting the safe-haven price of gold.
Investment strategy
As we feared following Donald Trump's re-election to the US presidency, since he was sworn in for this second term, there has been a flood of executive orders. Although he initially appeared to have temporarily abandoned tariffs, we were reminded of his campaign promises in this area at the end of January. The announcement of tariffs of 25% on products imported from Mexico and Canada and 10% on those from China (effective 4 February) was immediately followed by retaliation, leading to a temporary suspension until early March. Announcements of possible measures against the European Union are also expected. According to Goldman Sachs, a 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate raises the core PCE price level by 0.1%, implying a one-off boost to core PCE inflation of 0.5% y/y. If the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are implemented as announced, we should see inflation that could exceed 3.0%. The consequences of a reacceleration in inflation could mean a premature end to US rate cuts and a major turning point for markets, especially at current valuations. Against this backdrop, we have taken a more cautious approach to our asset allocation. Although we have reduced our equity allocation, we are maintaining our preference for corporate bonds and favouring European government bonds to take advantage of monetary policy divergences.
Trump Announced Tariffs of 25% on Imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese Imports
Portfolio Activity/ News
Our positioning at the beginning of the year was very clearly risk-on, with a broad allocation to equity markets and high yield bonds. We have recently reduced our equity allocation but maintained our credit stance and added long-dated eurozone government bonds. Our expectation of an acceleration in the central bank's accommodative monetary policy confirms our belief in the potential for added value in this segment. On the other hand, we remain much more cautious on US yields, which are still likely to rise due to uncertainties on the inflation front. Having benefited greatly from our strong allocation to US equities, we began to move back into European equity markets in January, including Switzerland for clients thinking in these currencies. This move proved very profitable in January, given the excellent performance of these markets. In a scenario of lower European interest rates, we look at interest rate-sensitive assets such as the MDAX (the 50 largest companies after the DAX). Indeed, the pro-business policies proposed by the CDU, currently leading in the polls, would stimulate investment and could mark a turning point for Europe. Within US equities, we took profits on our Value Exposure, maintained a market-consistent weighting in technology and increased our exposure to small and mid-caps, which should benefit fully from the Republicans' pro-budget policies. We took advantage of the sharp fluctuations in the US dollar during the month to significantly reduce our position. Following these changes, we are still slightly overweight in US dollars. We reduced our exposure to Global Macro before exiting the segment altogether to build up a liquidity cushion that could prove useful in the event of excessive volatility.
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Perspectivas | Primer Semestre 2025
Resumen ejecutivo
La nueva administración de EE. UU. tendrá un enfoque más introspectivo, con una agenda procrecimiento que incluye recortes fiscales y desregulación. Esto también ha reducido significativamente los temores de una recesión inminente. Sin embargo, estas medidas, combinadas con aranceles más altos y políticas migratorias más restrictivas, añadirán presiones inflacionarias y podrían obligar a la Reserva Federal (Fed) a desacelerar o incluso reconsiderar su ciclo de reducción de tipos.
La combinación de un crecimiento robusto, condiciones financieras laxas y unos balances corporativos saneados hace que sigamos siendo optimistas sobre el segmento crediticio. Favorecemos los bonos de alto rendimiento (HY) en todas las regiones debido a la atractiva rentabilidad total. Somos más cautelosos con el grado de inversión (IG), no solo por los diferenciales extremadamente ajustados, sino también por la mayor sensibilidad a los tipos de interés.
A pesar de los crecientes riesgos políticos, el entorno general sigue siendo favorable para las acciones. Con un crecimiento de ganancias estimado del 15% em 2025, el mercado estadounidense debería mantener su ventaja estructural sobre otros mercados desarrollados, aunque estas estimaciones ambiciosas serán difíciles de alcanzar y podrían generar sorpresas negativas, especialmente para las mega capitalizaciones de tecnología.
Perspectivas económicas
La resolución de las elecciones en EE.UU. aporta claridad a los mercados
El crecimiento global sigue siendo resiliente en 2025, en línea con las estimaciones de 2024
Las divergencias de crecimiento entre economías desarrolladas se amplían
Las tasas de política monetaria en mercados desarrollados se normalizan
Los recortes de tipos de la Fed serán más comedidos
La inflación se inclina al alza, especialmente en EE. UU. bajo Trump 2.0.
Principales riesgos
La Fed se ve obligada a subir los tipos por shocks puntuales de inflación y persistentes
Una desaceleración económica sin caída de la inflación eleva las primas a largo plazo
Políticas ineficaces llevan a la "japonización" de la economía china
Alza de los tipos de interés reales en Japón
Convicciones de inversión
Los vientos en contra del crecimiento en la zona euro dan margen al BCE para reducir tipos
Las curvas de rendimiento de EE. UU. podrían subir en 2025, agregando duración si el rendimiento a 10 años alcanza el 5%
Los diferenciales corporativos de mercados emergentes son atractivos, pero se espera volatilidad a medida que se desarrollen los aranceles comerciales
Las políticas de apoyo deberían continuar respaldando las empresas estadounidenses de mediana y pequeña capitalización
Los diferenciales de tipos de interés siguen siendo un catalizador para los flujos hacia activos denominados en dólares
ÍNDICE
- PERSPECTIVAS PRIMER SEMESTRE 2025
- 2024 BREVE RESEÑA : PRINCIPALES ASPECTOS DESTACADOS
- PERSPECTIVAS 2025
- CONVICCIONES DE INVERSIÓN
- ASIGNACIÓN POR CLASES DE ACTIVOS
