Newsletter | May 2023
APRIL WAS A MUCH LESS VOLATILE MONTH FOR CAPITAL MARKETS
- 5.9% THE GAP AT THE END OF APRIL OF A US LARGE CAP EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX TO A MARKET CAP ONE
Investment perspective
The month of April proved to be much less volatile than the previous one. The major equity indices of developed markets recorded limited gains, whereas emerging market equities ended with small losses. Despite the prospect of additional rate hikes, persistent inflation and signs of slowing economic growth, equities proved to be quite resilient. This was due in large part to acceptable corporate earnings which beat expectations that had been consistently lowered by analysts over the past months. Bond markets also ended with modest changes even if volatility remained well above-average, in contrast to the fast declining volatility observed in equity markets. The yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasuries edged lower by 2bps and 5bps, respectively, to end-April levels of 4.01% and 3.42%, with Bunds behaving in a very similar manner. With markets still anticipating a number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2023, following a final 25bps hike in May, the US dollar continued to depreciate against other major currencies; the EUR/USD parity appreciated by 1.7% to end the month at 1.102.
With more than 85% of the S&P 500’s market cap having reported, earnings have beaten estimates by 6.6%, with 77% of companies topping projections. Earnings per share growth is on pace for - 1.3%, assuming the current beat rate for the rest of the season. Sales have beaten estimates by 2.8%, with 67% of companies doing better than expected. In Europe, the earnings season is somewhat less advanced but, out of the companies having already reported their results for the first quarter, 64% have beaten earnings’ estimates and 65% sales’ expectations. Overall, these results have been supportive for equity markets, especially as most of the US mega-caps beat expectations. The results of companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Exxon Mobil and JPMorgan Chase were cheered by markets and contributed to the outperformance of their stock prices in April.
Investment strategy
We maintained our defensive portfolio asset allocation in April. We remain sceptical about the potential for much higher equity markets in the near term, due to an expected slowdown of the economy, tighter bank lending standards, and markets’ overoptimistic anticipation for Fed rate cuts in 2023. We continue to observe sticky inflation data and the main central banks will not want to take the risk of making a policy mistake by cutting interest rates too early. If they were to cut rates, in contrast to their current outlooks, it would be because of pronounced weakness of the economy which is not being discounted by equity markets at present. We also believe that long-term bond yields could increase from the current levels. In that case, it would allow us to increase our fixed income allocation as well as the portfolios’ duration.
THE MARKETS’ EXPECTATIONS FOR 2ND HALF RATE CUTS DO NOT MATCH THE FED’S POLICY PATH OUTLOOK
Portfolio Activity/ News
April was a flattish month for the portfolios as monthly changes for the different positions tended to be limited and ended up by neutralising one another overall. The medtech and services fund provided the best contribution, with European value equities, the real assets fund, defensive equities, and the trend-following CTA strategy also producing some positive contributions. The main monthly detractors were the global technology fund, global convertible bonds, Chinese equities, the multi-thematic fund, as well as the emerging market corporate debt fund. With the exception of global convertible bonds, all the other fixed income positions generated small positive contributions. Alternative strategies also added to the performance of the portfolios even if gains were modest. For non-USD denominated portfolios, the depreciation of the dollar meant that it was a detractor.
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Newsletter | April 2023
STRESS IN THE BANKING SECTOR PUSHED YIELD CURVES MUCH LOWER
4.35% THE EXPECTED END-YEAR LEVEL OF THE FED FUND RATE
Investment perspective
The month of March was most eventful for capital markets. Three US banks collapsed following a run on their deposits and the Swiss government forced through the takeover of the 167 year-old bank, Crédit Suisse, by its rival UBS. This banking turmoil triggered a fall of equity markets and a plunge of bond yields. Markets also quickly repriced their expectations relative to the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle, with rate cuts being anticipated for the second-half of 2023, once again. US federal authorities intervened quickly to protect both insured and uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to restore calm in the markets. The merger of CS and UBS also contributed to remove some market stress even if Deutsche Bank found itself under heavy selling pressure for a brief period. The second half of March saw global equity markets rebound strongly and end the month with modest positive returns. The best performing asset in March was gold which benefited significantly from lower real bond yields and a weaker US dollar to appreciate by 7.8%.
A high level of volatility has been observed in bond markets for some time now, as a result of the fast pace of monetary tightening since early 2022. The moves that took place in March, however, proved to be even more extreme. The yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasuries collapsed from early-March levels of 5.06% and 4.08% to closing lows of 3.77% and 3.38%, respectively, a most significant shift of the US yield curve. By the end of March, expectations for the end-year level of the Fed’s fund rate had also dived to 4.35%, compared to an early-March level of 5.55%. In the Eurozone bond markets, comparable trends as in the US were observed, even if to a lesser degree; markets are now pricing in a end-year ECB policy rate of 3.4%, in contrast to 4% at the beginning of March.
Investment strategy
Our defensive portfolio asset allocation was maintained through March. We were close to being able to increase our fixed income allocation as bond yields kept on rising, but their sudden drop has prevented us from making this move so far. We had also got very near to our first target on the EUR/USD parity, with the objective of decreasing our dollar exposure. Then again, the unexpected banking turmoil trig-gered a reversal of the prevailing trend, taking away the opportunity to sell the US currency. We admit being some-what puzzled by the ongoing confidence of equity markets in view of the signals sent out by the bond markets. Were the Fed to cut rates this year, as currently priced in by markets, it would be due to a deeper slowdown of the economy, not the best framework for equities. That is one of the reasons why we have kept our underweight allocation towards equities.
The past month was a mixed bag for alternative strategies, but we continue to view them as an integral part of the port-folios. This is also the case for gold which has continued to provide real diversification and to behave more like a long duration asset, bringing defensive qualities to portfolios.
THE OPTIMISM OF EQUITY MARKETS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO WHAT IS EXPRESSED BY BOND MARKETS
Portfolio Activity/ News
March was a modestly negative month for the portfolios as equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes all posted negative returns. US and European value funds were the largest detractors in the equity allocation, whereas the global technology fund produced a strong contribution as growth stocks outperformed. Our underweight duration exposure and our preference for credit strategies meant that most bond funds ended with limited monthly changes, except for the emerging market corporate debt fund which experienced a larger drawdown. The brutal reversal of bond markets also proved costly for trend-following strategies, in reason of their very short positioning on rates. In contrast, the discretionary global macro strategy performed very well. For non-USD denominated portfolios, the depreciation of the dollar also translated into a negative contribution for the portfolios.
In March two new funds were added to the model portfolios. The first one is a US value fund which replaced our previous US value one. The reasons for this change were an under-whelming performance of the prior fund recently, as well as an overweight exposure to the energy sector within the new fund. We also trimmed our discretionary Global Macro and trend-following CTA strategies to make room for a systematic Global Macro strategy based on fundamental and price-based indicators. The fund combines carry, fundamental, trend-following and value/reversion strategies, and displays a remarkable track-record over an extended number of years.
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Rejuvenation continues at Forum Finance
Rejuvenation continues at Forum Finance
Geneva, 5th April 2023 – Geneva-based independent asset manager The Forum Finance Group SA has appointed two new independent Board members – Biba Homsy and Alain Couttolenc – and a new Partner, Tanja von Ahnen. By strengthening its Board of Directors and regularly giving access to capital to new partners, Forum Finance reinforces its attractiveness for talented individuals and sets the foundations for its ambitious plans for the future.
Biba Homsy is Founder and Partner of Homsy Legal, a law firm based in Switzerland and Luxembourg specialising in financial markets, compliance, and crypto assets. Prior to that, she led teams at the Swiss regulator FINMA for 5 years, and was also Chief Compliance Officer at Credit Suisse, in charge of Luxembourg and its European branches (France, Portugal, Ireland, Austria, Netherlands). She was appointed as one of the 30 global experts in crypto currency by the World Economic Forum (WEF). A lecturer at several universities on compliance, anti-money laundering and Fintech, she holds two master’s degrees in law (French and Swiss universities) and a certification from Harvard Law School on financial regulation.
Alain Couttolenc is Head of Development and External Relations at IPSOS, a global leader in market research. After starting his career in 1995 at Nielsen Mexico, he joined the Renault Nissan Group in 1999 to launch Renault in Mexico as Marketing Manager. After 8 years, he returned to Nielsen as Vice President for Latin America, before moving to Paris then to Geneva, as Managing Director of Nielsen Media and Marketing Effectiveness. Alain Couttolenc holds a master’s degree in marketing from the Kellogg School of Management and a degree in economics from the Universidad Iberoamericana de Mexico. He has been teaching marketing at La Sorbonne since 2011, is a member of the EFFIE Global Awards, a member of the Executive Committee of the Geneva Investor Circle, an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s community of experts, and a member of Trust Valley’s advisory board.
Tanja von Ahnen joined Forum Finance in 2022 after a 16-year long career in private banking at Banque Syz and RBC, primarily servicing wealthy families based in Latin America. Prior to becoming a private banker, she worked as an independent consultant and as a controller with Allianz Insurance. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Zurich University and Bachelor degree in Economics from Göttingen University.
A solid structure and governance
With nearly 30 years of steady growth, Forum Finance has proven its durability. Its robust and transparent governance guarantees the integrity of its leadership and allows it to welcome new partners to ensure its continuity. With CHF 2 billion under management, it has sufficient resources to finance its future growth. This solidity is further underlined by its FINMA CISA licence. Finally, registered with the SEC, Forum Finance can also look after American clients.
Offering a compelling alternative to wealth managers wishing to ‘future proof’ their activities
In view of the recent regulatory changes in the Swiss independent asset management industry, Forum Finance offers a solid framework with an equitable and collaborative culture for wealth managers who have an entrepreneurial spirit.
Hippolyte de Weck, CEO, said: “adding high quality talent is the greatest challenge for any company. We are therefore particularly pleased with the calibre of our new board members and our new partner. They will provide us with valuable guidance and support to grow our business further and prepare ourselves for the decades to come“.
For additional information, please contact:
Egon Vorfeld
The Forum Finance Group SA
T: +41 (0)22 552 83 00
E: vorfeld@ffgg.com
ffgg.com
Ricardo Payro
Payro Communication Sàrl
T: +41 (0)22 322 13 17
E: :rp@payro.ch
payro.ch
About Forum Finance
Founded in 1994 in Geneva, Forum Finance offers private banking and asset management services to a high-end global clientele. It has 25 employees who manage and supervise CHF 2 billion in assets. The company is regulated and supervised by the FINMA under the CISA licence and is registered with the SEC as investment adviser.
Forum Finance wins four awards at the WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2023
Forum Finance wins four awards at the WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2023
Forum Finance crowned best independent Swiss asset manager with assets over CHF 1 billion for the third year running.
Forum Finance crowned best independent Swiss asset manager with assets over CHF 1 billion for the third year running.
Forum Finance wins three additional awards for the best Next-Gen program, Wealth Planning team and Servicing North American clients.
Forum Finance wins three additional awards for the best Next-Gen program, Wealth Planning team and Servicing North American clients.
Geneva, 10th March 2023 – Geneva-based independent asset manager The Forum Finance Group SA has won the award for the best independent Swiss asset manager for the third year running at the WealthBriefing Swiss EAM Awards 2023, in the premier category of companies with assets under management of over CHF 1 billion. It won an additional 3 awards for the best Next-Gen program, Wealth Planning team and Servicing North American clients.
Announced during the prize-giving ceremony held last night in Zurich, the awards recognise the best independent Swiss asset management companies, selected through a rigorous process for their “innovation and excellence in 2022” by a panel of experts. The independent jury comprises specialist consultants, representatives of custodian banks and technology solution providers, as well as other industry experts.
In the case of Forum Finance, the panel of judges highlighted: “that the successful onboarding of the next generation of managers and client-facing people have allowed the implementation of excellent strategies which have enabled the company to grow its assets under management and become a leading EAM”. The judges also mentioned that they were “impressed by Forum Finance’s ability to provide specific wealth planning services to families and their Next Generation. Furthermore, the firm has put a lot of effort into hiring the right people to deliver on wealth planning and structuring issues”. With regard to the Servicing North American Clients award, they said: “the winner combines traditional asset management with specific US client services. With their qualifications to manage life assurance policies, together with providing an inhouse international wealth planner makes them a strong partner for US clients. A worthy winner”.
Indeed, having anticipated the changes in the asset management industry, Forum Finance has strengthened its structure and organisation over the last few years, as evidenced by the CISA licence granted by FINMA in 2015 and its registration as investment adviser with the US SEC in 2016. In addition, Forum Finance continues to invest in its research, investment management and wealth advisory resources, as well as in technology, enabling it to respond effectively to the changing needs of its clients.
Hippolyte de Weck, Managing Partner and CEO of Forum Finance, stated: “We are truly honoured to have been awarded these highly regarded industry accolades. Winning all these awards is most rewarding! It is a real testament of our collaborative and equitable corporate culture and our ability to attract great new talent. New talent also brings new ideas and new skills. Two of the awards this year clearly demonstrate that: best Wealth Planning team and Next-Gen program. These were a direct result of us hiring a dedicated wealth planner who is inherently also focussed on the next generation.”
For additional information, please contact:
Egon Vorfeld
The Forum Finance Group SA
T: +41 (0)22 552 83 00
E: vorfeld@ffgg.com
ffgg.com
Ricardo Payro
Payro Communication Sàrl
T: +41 (0)22 322 13 17
E: :rp@payro.ch
payro.ch
About Forum Finance
Founded in 1994 in Geneva, Forum Finance offers private banking and asset management services to a high-end global clientele. It has 25 employees who manage and supervise around CHF 2 billion. The company is authorised under the CISA licence by FINMA and is registered with the SEC as investment adviser.
Newsletter | March 2023
MARKETS WERE IMPACTED BY A REPRICING OF POLICY RATES IN FEBRUARY
4% THE EXPECTED PEAK LEVEL OF THE ECB’S KEY RATE
Investment perspective
The early-year optimism in financial markets gave way to renewed concerns over inflation and even tighter monetary policies, triggering a significant drop of bond markets. As often observed in 2022, the volatility in bond markets rose noticeably and impacted the momentum of other asset classes. The yields of 10-year Treasuries ended the month 41bps higher at 3.92% with those of Bunds with a similar maturity climbing by 37bps to 2.65%. While European equity markets proved to be resilient, as the Euro Stoxx 50 Index edged 1.8% higher, emerging market and US ones gave back a large portion of their January gains; the MSCI EM Index fell by 6.5% and the S&P 500 Index lost 2.6%. In this context, the US dollar benefited from the widening of the interest rate differential between Treasuries and Bunds, and from its safe haven status, to record a solid performance against other major currencies. A strong dollar and higher real interest rates meant that gold saw its early-year gains being erased, while other commodity prices also dropped.
Early-year market confidence over the decline of inflation appears to have been replaced by concerns that it will be more sticky and remain higher for longer than previously anticipated. This change of outlook was triggered by the publication of inflation data which was above forecasts, on both sides of the Atlantic, and was reflected by the steep rise of inflation expectations. The correction of bond markets in February means that they are more closely aligned now with the outlooks of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, with an implicit admission that policy rates will end up at much higher peak levels than previously expected. Markets are now pricing in peak policy rates of 5.5% in the US and 4% in the Eurozone, compared to January 2023 lows for peak rates of 4.7% and 3.05% respectively.
Investment strategy
We maintained our defensive asset allocation in February. Thanks to an underweight allocation towards equities and a low duration of the fixed income exposure, the drawdown of portfolios was not too deep. In last month’s newsletter, we had reiterated our scepticism about the markets’ optimistic outlook over a pivot by the Fed in the second half of 2023 and were therefore not surprised by the retreat of equity markets in view of rising bond yields. We believe that equity risk premiums are not attractive at this stage, leading us to remain cautious, especially in view of concerns over profit margins and the path of earnings.
We are closely observing the level of European bond yields as we are approaching a point where we would likely increase the duration of the portfolios. The latest developments in bond markets also mean that the recent appreciation of the US dollar has stalled. As we did not reach our first target on the EUR/USD parity, we have not yet reduced our dollar exposure for non-USD denominated portfolios.
INVESTORS HAVE BACKTRACKED FROM THEIR OPTIMISTIC STANCE OVER TERMINAL RATES
Portfolio Activity/ News
February was a negative month for the portfolios as both the equity and fixed income asset classes were detractors, while hedge funds produced only a marginal positive contribution. For non-USD denominated portfolios, the appreciation of the dollar provided a welcome positive contribution. Some of January’s best performing funds fared the worst during the month under review; the metal mining fund and Chinese equities were the largest equity detractors, whereas emerging market corporate bonds and the long duration investment-grade fund were the biggest fixed income ones. European Value and cyclical equities provided the best contributions within the equity asset class and the short duration European high yield fund generated the only positive fixed income contribution.
In February two new funds were approved by our investment committee. The first one runs a systematic Global Macro strategy based on fundamental and price-based indicators. The fund combines carry, fundamental, trend-following and value/reversion strategies, and displays a remarkable track-record over an extended number of years. The second fund is a concentrated US Value fund, which seeks to invest into great businesses trading at a “bargain”. Since its inception in 2008, the strategy has outperformed both its Value bench-mark and the broader S&P 500 Index.
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