Nueva identidad visual para FORUM FINANCE
Ginebra, el 4 de Marzo 2026
Presentacion de la evolucion de nuestra identidad corporativa
En FORUM FINANCE entendemos nuestra marca como una extensión directa de nuestra manera de pensar, tomar decisiones y acompañar a nuestros clientes. Por esta razón, tras un riguroso proceso de reflexión estratégica y análisis de posicionamiento, hemos llevado a cabo una actualización integral de nuestra identidad corporativa, incluyendo la evolución de nuestro logotipo y de todo el sistema visual de la marca.
Este cambio responde a un objetivo claro: reforzar el reconocimiento de FORUM FINANCE, clarificar nuestro mensaje y proyectar con mayor precisión los valores que guían nuestra actividad diaria. No se trata de un simple rediseño gráfico, sino de una decisión estratégica destinada a consolidar nuestro posicionamiento y preparar a la firma para los desafíos presentes y futuros del sector financiero.
Reafirmando la fuerza del nombre FORUM
Uno de los pilares centrales de este reposicionamiento ha sido la recuperación y puesta en valor del nombre FORUM. En lugar de apoyarnos en iniciales que no siempre son inmediatamente reconocibles o universales, hemos decidido destacar la palabra FORUM en nuestra denominación: es breve, distintiva y potente, directamente asociada al mundo financiero y fácilmente reconocible en cualquier contexto.
FORUM es un nombre que no requiere interpretación: se entiende, se recuerda y se pronuncia
de la misma manera en todos los idiomas y entornos culturales. Esta claridad refuerza nuestro
compromiso de comunicarnos de forma transparente, directa y coherente, tanto con nuestros
clientes como con el mercado.
El foro romano como fundamento conceptual
El concepto central que inspira la nueva identidad visual de FORUM FINANCE es el foro romano, concebido no como una referencia decorativa, sino como un fundamento estructural y conceptual profundamente alineado con nuestra actividad.
En la antigua Roma, el foro era el espacio donde convergían la vida económica, jurídica, institucional y pública. Era un lugar de encuentro, diálogo, intercambio y toma de decisiones, construido sobre principios de orden, estabilidad y permanencia.
Esta idea de un espacio compartido, sólido y estructurado se sitúa en el corazón de la identidad
renovada de FORUM FINANCE.
Desde una perspectiva formal, el diseño se basa en una geometría esencial y racional, inspirada en las plantas de los foros romanos y en sus estructuras arquitectónicas. Las formas fundamentales — cuadrado, semicírculo, triángulo — no solo están presentes en el logotipo, sino que configuran un lenguaje visual distintivo, aplicado de manera coherente en todos los materiales de comunicación.
La palabra FORUM, compuesta tipográficamente en mayúsculas con un tratamiento sólido, puede interpretarse como una vista en planta o una perspectiva abstracta de estos espacios arquitectónicos, reforzando conceptos de estructura, equilibrio y visión global. Esta geometría deliberadamente simple aporta claridad, legibilidad y atemporalidad, y ha sido diseñada para perdurar.
Una identidad alineada con nuestros valores
La nueva identidad corporativa ha sido diseñada para reflejar con mayor precisión los valores que definen a FORUM FINANCE:
- Confianza, como base de relaciones a largo plazo
- Transparencia, en el análisis y la comunicación
- Flexibilidad, para ofrecer soluciones a medida
- Excelencia, en cada decisión y en cada servicio
- Estabilidad, como garantía de continuidad
- Independencia en todo momento, con el foco en sus intereses
La elección de una tipografía contemporánea sin serif introduce modernidad y diferenciación frente a los códigos más tradicionales del sector financiero, mientras que la paleta cromática basada en tonos azul profundo con sutiles matices verdes y acentos contrastados cuidadosamente seleccionados — refuerza la percepción de solidez, profesionalidad e identidad distintiva.
Una marca diseñada para todos los entornos
El resultado es una identidad simple, clara y altamente reconocible, concebida para funcionar con la misma eficacia en entornos digitales, documentación corporativa, espacios físicos y comunicaciones institucionales. Una marca que ha ganado visibilidad, coherencia y fuerza expresiva, manteniendo al mismo tiempo la sobriedad y el rigor que caracterizan a FORUM FINANCE.
Esta nueva etapa refleja nuestro compromiso de comunicar con mayor claridad quiénes somos, cómo trabajamos y qué nos diferencia, apoyándonos en un nombre único y en una identidad plenamente alineada con nuestra forma de entender las finanzas y nuestra relación con los clientes.
Les agradecemos sinceramente la confianza que depositan en FORUM FINANCE y les invitamos a acompañarnos en esta evolución, que refuerza nuestro compromiso con la excelencia, la claridad y la visión a largo plazo.
FORUM FINANCE
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Newsletter | January 2026
Gold briefly reached a new high of around 5,600 before “flash crashing” to around 4,700
21.3% PERFORMANCE OF URANIUM
Investment perspective
Global risk assets extended last year’s momentum, with equity indices flirting with new highs while precious metals experienced sharp, technically driven swings and investors continued to rotate out of crowded U.S. exposures into European and emerging‑market equities. The economic backdrop remained one of moderating inflation, late‑cycle monetary policy and elevated geopolitical risks from Ukraine to the Middle East. In the latter, regional actors continued to hedge against a tougher U.S. “maximum pressure” posture on Iran, while intra‑Gulf frictions and Yemen‑related strikes underlined the potential for disruption to key maritime and energy routes. Global macro data broadly confirmed the 'soft landing' narrative: growth is expected to slow towards the mid-2% area in 2026, with inflation converging towards central bank targets, helped by easing goods inflation and cooling labour markets. However, central banks struck a cautious tone, viewing rate-cut cycles as being in their later stages and considering further progress on inflation necessary before materially easing financial conditions. Even if precious metals retain a central role as diversifiers against policy and geopolitical shocks, technical overhangs could lead to a choppy trading path. Gold, silver and especially platinum all rallied in the first trading days of the year, supported by ongoing central‑bank demand, concerns about fiscal sustainability and currencies, and tight physical balances, particularly in the more industrial metals. Kevin Warsh’s nomination acted as an important catalyst, but it was not the sole driver of the metals sell‑off, the temporary strengthening of the dollar and the renewed tension along the rate curve. Rather, it amplified moves that were already building on a hawkish shift in Fed expectations and an earlier dollar rebound. In the days around the nomination, precious metals suffered a brutal sell‑off, with silver futures dropping more than 30% in a single session. Major developed‑market indices began 2026 at or near record levels; in Europe, the main benchmarks set fresh all‑time highs, while the UK index traded above the psychological 10,000 mark for the first time. A notable feature of the month was the ongoing rotation away from the most richly valued U.S. growth universe towards international markets. Emerging‑market equities entered 2026 on the back of a strong 2025 rebound, underpinned by a weaker dollar, improving fundamentals and renewed inflows.
Investment strategy
Global activity data continue to signal positive growth momentum, with the United States standing out as the primary potential upside surprise. A combination of easier monetary policy, renewed fiscal stimulus, and regulatory easing is laying the groundwork for a possible reacceleration in US growth. Meanwhile, breakeven inflation rates have moved sharply higher, offering an early warning that current benign inflation readings may not fully reflect medium-term price pressures. Outside the US, inflation risks appear considerably lower. However, sustained public spending across Europe is likely to keep rates anchored at relatively elevated levels and may limit duration appetite among institutional investors. In Japan, the ongoing process of rate normalization marks a structural shift after decades of ultra-low yields. Over time, higher domestic rates could encourage Japanese institutional investors to gradually repatriate capital, reducing their exposure to foreign fixed income and exerting upward pressure on global long-end yields. Across global credit and equity markets, risk assets remain richly valued relative to history. Credit spreads in high-quality credit provide limited margins for error, while equity multiples largely price in a soft-landing scenario with only modest earnings volatility.
President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell.
Portfolio Activity/ News
Our positioning reflects a modest risk-on stance. Despite this, we reduced our overweight position during the month, recognising the late-cycle environment and asymmetric US inflation risks. We maintain a neutral to slightly overweight stance, favouring regions and sectors that are less exposed to US-specific inflation and policy risks. In the United States, the rotation out of growth stocks and into small caps and value has gained momentum as investors shift from overvalued mega-cap tech, driven by Fed rate cuts, a steepening yield curve and small-cap earnings growth forecasts of 17–22% versus the broad index's 14–15%. In Europe, we reduced market sensitivity by selling eurozone equities in favour of a dedicated European event-driven strategy with limited market beta. Emerging markets offer some of the most attractive opportunities across fixed income, equities, and currencies. Many EM central banks are further along in disinflation and easing, and real rates remain positive and elevated in key regions. This month, we switched from an EM debt corporate-only strategy to a flexible approach spanning sovereigns (hard and local currency) and corporates, mirroring our prior shift in global credit towards bottom-up bond selection and agile management. We maintained our positions in liquid alternatives and increased our gold position marginally during the month. We initiated a Japanese yen position and maintained our cautious stance on the US dollar, keeping it materially underweight.
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Perspectivas | 2026
En pocas palabras
Perspectivas económicas
El riesgo macroeconómico pasa de “no tener motor de crecimiento” a “un único motor saturado”: las decisiones de política, regulación y asignación de capital en torno a la IA definirán tanto el desempeño regional como el equilibrio entre avances reales y excesos en los mercados financieros.
El crecimiento de EE. UU. pasa de ser excepcional a “lento pero positivo”, con los aranceles y la incertidumbre política actuando como un lastre más que como un shock absoluto. Europa y Japón se convierten en contribuyentes graduales más que en rezagados, mientras que China sigue siendo un punto estructuralmente débil; esto respalda una tesis de rotación gradual, pero no un traspaso de liderazgo claro.
Los aranceles representan riesgos alcistas para la inflación en EE. UU. y los mercados emergentes, mientras que Europa prevé desinflación por una demanda moderada; en conjunto, una dinámica estable pero sin aceleración.
La inteligencia artificial (IA) mitiga los riesgos a la baja en la productividad y el crecimiento potencial a largo plazo, especialmente en las economías avanzadas, compensando en parte los vientos en contra derivados de los aranceles y la demografía.
Riesgos claves
La inflación podría repuntar por interrupciones en la oferta, una demanda aún sólida o presiones salariales, complicando las vías de relajamiento de los bancos centrales a pesar de las previsiones de desinflación.
Las tensiones geopolíticas elevan el riesgo de guerras comerciales y repuntes de materias primas, mientras la fricción entre EE. UU. y China, junto con los aranceles, amenaza los volúmenes de comercio global. Europa enfrenta una debilidad exportadora derivada de los cambios en la política estadounidense.
Las presiones sobre la deuda soberana, derivadas de políticas fiscales expansivas, populismo y gasto en defensa, podrían desencadenar ventas de bonos y condiciones más restrictivas. Se vislumbran correcciones bursátiles por valoraciones elevadas y decepciones en resultados empresariales.
Convicciones de inversión
Mantenemos una postura pro-riesgo al entrar en 2026, favoreciendo la renta variable en un contexto de relajación monetaria esperada y crecimiento global, aunque conscientes de la volatilidad política.
Un ciclo monetario acomodaticio, favorable a los activos sensibles a las tasas - como las pequeñas capitalizaciones estadounidenses y los mercados emergentes-, respalda claramente varias clases de activos. Estos dos segmentos son nuestras principales convicciones.
Seguimos infraponderados en riesgo de tipos (duración) y en bonos soberanos “core”, favoreciendo el crédito de manera selectiva y considerando exposiciones menos direccionales, como estrategias long/short.
Es probable que el dólar estadounidense siga debilitándose en el primer trimestre, impulsado por recortes de tasas de la Fed más agresivos de lo previsto, debido al cambio en la presidencia, lo que reducirá los diferenciales de rendimiento frente a sus pares del BCE y el BoE.
Finalmente, ante la concentración en renta variable y las presiones en los rendimientos de bonos, mantenemos nuestro compromiso con los activos alternativos y el oro para reforzar la resiliencia de las carteras. Aunque Bitcoin y otras criptomonedas forman ya parte de nuestro universo de inversión, nuestra convicción en ellas sigue siendo limitada.
ÍNDICE
- REVISIÓN MACROECONÓMICA SEGUNDO SEMESTRE 2025 : ASPECTOS MAS DESTACADOS
- PERSPECTIVAS PARA EL PRIMER SEMESTRE 2026
- RESULTADOS SEGUNDO SEMESTRE 2025
- CONVICCIONES DE INVERSIÓN PARA EL PRIMER SEMESTRE 2026
- ASIGNACIÓN POR CLASE DE ACTIVOS
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Newsletter | December 2025
Market expectations of a Fed cut in December surged to around 85-87% from under 40% a few weeks ago
17.2% PERFORMANCE OF SILVER
Investment perspective
The macro backdrop remained resilient, despite the lack of publications due to the US government shutdown. Growth in developed economies remained positive, earnings season was solid, and policy remained incrementally supportive, even as central banks debated the pace of future rate cuts. Despite the strong results from Nvidia, the technology sector was the worst-performing sector in November, and growth indices underperformed value by several percentage points. Pressure undoubtedly stems from growing concerns about overly optimistic profit expectations in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), given the demanding valuation levels. It should also be noted that the sharp downward revision in the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in December had a significant impact on growth assets, given the long duration of these companies' cash flows. Consequently, technology-heavy markets such as Korea and Taiwan, which had outperformed earlier in the year, experienced steeper pullbacks, exacerbating the drag on growth-style assets. The market quickly recovered following comments from John Williams, President of the New York Fed and Vice Chair of the FOMC. He suggested that key interest rates could be lowered in December due to the weak job market, while addressing concerns about future inflation. There has been an ongoing recalibration of market expectations around Fed policy, particularly with regard to the rising optimism and the 80–85% probability of a 25bps cut at the 9–10 December meeting — a significant increase from under 40% just weeks earlier despite the lack of fresh macro data. The market did not provide the usual strength seen in U.S. indices in November. Volatility and a muted performance were the norm, due to macro policy uncertainty, high valuation risk and episodic geopolitical shocks. This unusual November may lead to a stronger December, as markets often rebound from a soft November. Overall, the tone in the final trading days of November transitioned from cautious and volatile to constructive and hopeful, with liquidity returning and investors positioning for a "soft landing" scenario supported by looser monetary policy ahead. This optimism was a critical technical and psychological turning point that set the stage for a more positive market environment heading into December and the year-end period.
Investment strategy
Recent economic data showing weakening employment trends has fuelled optimism about rate cuts, aligning with the Fed's narrative on downside risks to the labour market. Market positioning reflected a growing belief that the Fed would prioritise supporting employment while managing inflation risks, making a rate cut in December more plausible. Although U.S. breakeven inflation rates have declined moderately recently, they remain above the long-term average, signalling a modest easing of inflation expectations. Markets expect inflation to remain moderately above the Fed's target for the time being, favouring cautious policy adjustments over aggressive easing. What can we expect from the change in leadership at the Fed in 2026? The nomination of Kevin Hassett suggests a shift towards more dovish monetary policy. As Trump's chief economic adviser, Hassett has advocated earlier and more substantial rate cuts to support growth and employment, reflecting Trump's stance on the Fed's slow easing. Markets have responded positively to the nomination, with Treasury yields falling due to expectations of cheaper borrowing costs and easier financial conditions. If Hassett or a similarly minded candidate is confirmed, the yield curve is expected to steepen as short-term yields fall quickly with rate cuts, while longer-term yields may rise due to inflation concerns and uncertainty about the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation. This could introduce volatility and risk at the long end of the curve.
The Bitcoin plunged from over $125,000 in early October to below $90,000 in late November
Portfolio Activity/ News
November was a worrying month due to the sharp correction in sectors such as technology, which had previously enabled the markets to reach and exceed their historic highs. Interest in defensive sectors such as healthcare increased, and these sectors performed extremely well in November. Despite the volatility caused by repricing interest rate cuts and expected returns on substantial investments in artificial intelligence, we maintain a pro-risk stance, particularly with regard to equities. We have not made any significant changes to our regional positioning. We continue to have a strong preference for emerging markets and Europe, both of which outperformed the United States in their respective local currencies last month. After reducing our exposure to credit markets by a small amount, we have kept our allocations unchanged. However, we are aware of a situation involving a spread that offers asymmetric payoffs, where the potential for gains apart from the portable portion is becoming less attractive to us. The prospect of a high probability of a rate cut by the Fed immediately put pressure on the US dollar, which depreciated against most currencies, particularly those of emerging markets. We are maintaining our underweight position on the dollar and our preference for emerging countries and currencies. Following the dollar, gold has regained some ground after pausing at around $4,000 and is currently trading at $4,173.
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Newsletter | November 2025
Following its Q3 earnings report on October 30th, Amazon’s stock surged about 10-12% in after-hours trading.
16.64% PERFORMANCE OF NIKKEI 225
Investment perspective
Historically, October has a reputation for being a challenging month for the stock market, largely due to crashes such as those in 1929 and 1987. This has created the psychological expectation that stock prices tend to fall in October. However, this year, October somewhat diverged from this narrative. Equity markets worldwide reached record highs. This rally was supported by strong earnings reports and indications of accommodative monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and tariff negotiations that eased uncertainty. Nevertheless, market sentiment remained relatively cautious among investors, as evidenced by volatility spikes linked to trade tariffs, as well as concerns about US regional banks and credit, which precipitated selloffs in the banking sectors of the US, the UK, and Europe (notably on 17 October). The Fed's decision to lower rates was made amid limited economic data, as the ongoing government shutdown has hindered the release of key indicators such as employment and inflation reports. Despite inflation remaining above its target, the Fed adopted a cautious approach. The outcome of the Fed’s subsequent policy meetings will be pivotal in determining whether the easing trend continues or if a pivot back to tightening occurs, particularly if inflation remains high or economic growth accelerates. The end of quantitative tightening and the prospect of future monetary policy easing continue to support a cautiously optimistic outlook for risk assets. However, uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy and global economic conditions remain a potential source of instability. In early October, gold reached a historic high of over $4,300 per ounce, before correcting to around $4,000. This pullback is seen as normal profit-taking rather than a sign of fundamental weakness, which is consistent with the dynamics of the gold market after periods of rapid growth. The subsequent correction in gold prices occurred amid the stabilisation and strengthening of the US dollar. Investors also locked in gains following a period of rapid growth; prices had appreciated by over 55% year-to-date. In the credit markets, investment-grade corporate bond spreads remained near historic lows despite heavy issuance. The substantial issuance of new bonds by major technology companies such as Oracle did not result in a sustained increase in spreads, as investor demand easily absorbed the new issuance.
Investment strategy
Recent fears about seasonality, valuations and Sino-American trade tensions appear to have eased, making way for a sense of cautious optimism, as indicated by sentiment indicators. Given the positive macroeconomic momentum and improvements in both the US and the rest of the world, this environment is more favourable. This is evident in corporate earnings, which have, on average, exceeded expectations and reinforced the theme of artificial intelligence. We could therefore see this trend continuing to support risky assets, especially since the US Federal Reserve has continued its rate-cutting spree, making a second 25-basis-point cut at its October meeting. The market is anticipating the ongoing normalisation of US short-term rates, a view reinforced by the publication of lower-than-expected inflation figures. This downward cycle is expected to continue until 2026, with a further two to three cuts of 25 basis points. While this environment will continue to support markets, credit may have less potential at this stage given that spreads have already tightened considerably. Although we are optimistic about the markets and the economy, we are not ignoring the challenges posed by valuations and the uncertainties surrounding US policy. This is particularly pertinent given that momentum and technical levels remain intact, despite a few episodes of volatility. This stance is supported by sentiment indicators that remain far from euphoric levels, leaving scope for a year-end rally.
Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s first female prime minister, marking a historic milestone
Portfolio Activity/ News
After adopting a more cautious stance in early September due to concerns about the negative seasonal effects of this time of year, we acknowledged that the market trend remained positive. Testing the upward trend without breaking it provided favourable signals and prompted new buying opportunities. Based on this observation and the strong macroeconomic and corporate results, we increased our equity allocation twice in October. These increases focused on the Eurozone, US mid-caps, emerging markets and Asia, the latter two of which had already been among our favourites for some time. We achieved this increase in equity allocation by eliminating our cash position, created in early September, and by continuing to reduce our investment-grade credit exposure. Although we maintain a favourable allocation bias towards credit, the current spread levels lead us to exercise a degree of caution. We have therefore maintained our investments in hybrid bonds, both corporate and financial, which we believe offer superior returns to traditional corporate bonds. Following the spectacular and rapid rise in the price of gold, we took opportunities to rebalance our portfolios and secure some profits where relevant. The relatively strong performance of emerging markets and US small- and mid-cap stocks has increased our exposure to the US dollar marginally. This remains an underrepresented currency in our allocations. We have kept our alternative allocation, including gold, unchanged to enhance portfolio resilience in the event of a return to greater dispersion of returns across markets.
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Newsletter | October 2025
Gold has climbed above $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time, Gold hit $4,036 early on Wednesday
11.9% PERFORMANCE OF GOLD IN SEPTEMBER
Investment perspective
The global economy is showing resilient, albeit slowing, growth, with projections of around 3.2%-3.3% for 2025 and just below 3.0% for 2026. This growth is being held back by tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The US economy is expected to undergo a brief slowdown, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and policy stimulus. Labour market risks remain the most critical factor in the near term. The eurozone experienced stagnation in Q3 due to the unwinding of export front-loading and tariff effects. However, underlying growth momentum and government spending are expected to support a rebound in Q4. Private consumption remains a key driver of growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stated that recent interest rate cuts should begin to stimulate growth, particularly through robust household spending fuelled by rising real disposable income and a gradual decline in the savings ratio. Despite some temporary setbacks and demanding valuations, corporate earnings growth is expected to remain healthy globally, supporting equities. In this context, the primary US index closed last week at a record high. As the earnings season is about to begin, consensus estimates put year-on-year earnings per share growth at 6.0% in Q3. This seems quite conservative, including for the 'Magnificent Seven', and should therefore easily be surpassed, possibly even exceeding expectations. The outlook remains positive globally. US equities are at record highs, while European equities are supported by fiscal spending and much more attractive valuations. Despite global uncertainties, emerging markets saw stronger growth and relative stability in September. These markets continue to benefit from valuation advantages and improving financial stability. However, risks remain in the form of tariffs, inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions. Commodity prices, particularly gold, have fluctuated significantly, and the US dollar has weakened moderately due to investor caution and expectations of monetary easing. The depreciation of the US dollar has further amplified the rally in gold prices and provided a tailwind for emerging market currencies. Other commodities showed a mixed performance. While oil prices faced mild downward pressure due to ample supply, industrial metals remained relatively stable amid ongoing demand for infrastructure projects in emerging markets.
Investment strategy
The US equity market recently hit record highs. The IT heavyweight index continues to benefit from strong performance in companies such as AMD (which has a strategic partnership with OpenAI) and Nvidia. Despite tight valuations, momentum has been supported by optimism surrounding the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in the year, as well as robust corporate activity. However, the ongoing US government shutdown is a significant source of uncertainty. It has delayed the release of key economic data, including the jobs report. While this has increased the risk of market volatility, it has not yet dampened positive investor sentiment. As with the recent resignation of the French prime minister, the shutdown could create uncertainty around monetary policy decisions, but it may also present opportunities to buy at a low price. Moderate excesses in sentiment and seasonal trends suggest that investors will embrace opportunities ahead of Q3 earnings releases, despite low expectations, as there is potential for positive surprises. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows that although bullish sentiment is above the long-term average, it is nowhere near the extreme euphoria seen at previous market peaks. This reflects a moderate level of optimism among investors. Volatility indices suggest calm markets, indicating that investor fear remains subdued, though there is some greed present. Lower volatility and growing momentum typically signal positive market sentiment and can encourage further equity advances.
France’s Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned, creating political instability
Portfolio Activity/ News
In early September, in anticipation of challenging seasonality in the equity markets this month and given high valuation levels, we reduced our exposure to the credit markets after achieving strong performance. The cash generated from selling some of our high-yield credit exposure was invested in alternatives, specifically gold and an alternative trend strategy. At the same time, we reduced our overweight position in equities slightly by reducing our weighting in the US market. This reduction was reinvested in short-term liquidity instruments to maintain the flexibility to return to the markets in the event of a sharp decline or confirmation of the September trend. In retrospect, we should have maintained our US equity position. However, gold performed exceptionally well, rising by 11.9% in US dollar terms. Furthermore, to hedge against a potential further decline in the US dollar, we favoured instruments hedged in various portfolio reference currencies. It should also be noted that our alternative investment selection, particularly the alternative trend strategy, had a record month, with an increase of 5.8% in US dollar terms versus 3.6% for the broad US market index. We would like to highlight the continued strong performance of our global and emerging market managers, a segment in which we have a significant presence. The latter recorded a return of 6.7% in US dollars in September and has achieved a return of over 27.5% so far this year. Our stance remains constructive on the equity and credit markets, leading to a mildly risk-on posture. If market dynamics are confirmed, as they were in early October when key support levels were broken, particularly in Europe, we could consider returning to the equity markets selectively to take advantage of the current momentum.
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Newsletter | September 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door ever so slightly to lowering key interest rate in the coming months
12.8% PERFORMANCE OF THE CHINA A ONSHORE INDEX IN AUGUST
Investment perspective
Forecasts for real GDP growth in the second half of the year suggest slower quarter-on-quarter growth rates in most regions. Although some major economies, such as the US, Canada, the Eurozone and China, have recently reported stronger-than-expected 2Q GDP growth, leading to upward revisions in fore-casts, this momentum is expected to weaken, at least temporarily. As we have often emphasised in previous editions, this slowdown reflects the increase in effective US tariff rates, the unwinding of the initial growth boost from tariff front-running effects, and high levels of uncertainty and restrictive monetary conditions, particularly in the United States. Incidentally, regarding monetary policy, there is a growing probability of mod-est rate cuts in the US. This has caused the dollar to decline by 2.2%, reversing the gains made in July, and has pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) towards multi-year lows. This was triggered by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, in which he highlighted labour market weakness that could soon out-weigh inflation concerns. This has led to market expectations of potential rate cuts starting in September. The weak dollar has caused yields in US Treasury markets to drop as investors anticipate monetary easing. However, concerns about reduced foreign demand for US debt amid fiscal deficits have subsequently raised borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates at their current level, whereas the Bank of England cut rates by 25bps, from 4.25% to 4.00%, marking its fifth rate cut since August 2023. This was due to rising unemployment, albeit with inflation stubbornly remaining high at 3.6%. Nvidia’s results reinforced confidence in the AI-driven tech sector rally, showing robust growth in AI infrastructure spending. Despite the strong earnings beat, the stock price initially declined in after-hours trading because data centre rev-enue missed a narrow forecast, and the absence of any China sales prompted a cautious investor response. Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell by around 4.1% due to rising supply, increased production and geopolitical tensions dampening bullish momentum, all of which are concerns about demand. Precious metals gained as Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish speech lowered funding costs.
Investment strategy
Trump’s aggressive tariffs, unpredictable immigration poli-cies, and the trajectory of budget deficits have introduced significant economic uncertainty. Tariffs risk pushing inflation higher, restraining Federal Reserve easing and raising long-term bond yields. The hawkish stance of the US central bank has infuriated Pres-ident Trump, who has demanded an aggressive cut in interest rates from the current level of 4.25–4.50% to as low as 1.3%. Trump has intensified his attacks on the Fed's independence by attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook for alleged financial fraud. This would give Trump a majority on the Fed’s board and potential control over key monetary policy levers. We remain cautious about the trend in long-term interest rates and continue to favour intermediate maturities. In Eu-rope, the highly probable fall of the French government has once again put pressure on peripheral sovereign issuers. Within fixed income, our strongest conviction remains in credit, particularly in emerging market corporate credit, due to its solid fundamentals and attractive yield. As these securi-ties are generally issued in US dollars, we recommend favouring those with currency hedging to avoid the current negative trend in the US dollar. The end of summer is traditionally associated with concerns about September and its unfavourable seasonality. This is more than just a myth; historically, this month has been the worst for the main US stock market index. Since 1945, the in-dex has fallen by an average of 0.75% during September, making it the worst month of the year on average.
French government risks collapse with budget confidence vote in September
Portfolio Activity/ News
Overall, we kept to our original allocation throughout the month, a decision that proved wise given the favourable ongoing trends in the credit and equity markets. However, the negative effects of the weak US dollar, which rebounded in July, were evident once again. The narrowing of credit spreads continued to support this segment of the bond market. Given its current level, we should no longer expect this component to have a positive impact on future returns. We have been monitoring this trend for several months, and at current levels we are considering reducing our positions. After creating a small position in small- and mid-cap US stocks for our US dollar-based portfolios, which we gradually increased, we began the same process for our euro-based investors. In addition to attractive valuations and better earnings growth, Europe’s ongoing structural investments – particularly Germany’s fiscal spending plans and increased defence spending – are positive growth drivers for this sector. Mid-cap stocks also tend to be more domestically focused and less dependent on global supply chains, which can be advantageous amid global trade uncertainties. Despite the risks posed by global trade tensions, US political uncertainty, and inflationary pressures, we maintain a positive stance on emerging market equities. These markets offer balanced opportunities through improved regional cooperation, attractive valuations, and supportive macroeconomic momentum. The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to implement two to three rate cuts by year-end. However, political challenges affecting Fed independence and ongoing tariff-related legal disputes are adding to market uncertainty, undermining confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven. Consequently, we are minimizing US dollar exposure to mitigate risk amid an accelerating downward trend.
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Newsletter | August 2025
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady; speculation persisted regarding potential rate cuts in the fall.
5.8% PERFORMANCE OF THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN INDEX IN JULY
Investment perspective
Last month was characterised by fragile global economic resilience, buoyant but volatile financial markets, and ongoing political efforts to resolve regional conflicts. Growth risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly if trade uncertainties worsen or fiscal trajectories prove unsustainable. Indeed, persistent uncertainty over trade policy and high tariff levels continue to weigh on the long-term outlook, with the expected decline in the share of global trade in output. The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with growth now projected to be between 1.3% and 1.9%, depending on the source. Meanwhile, inflation is staying elevated at around 3.0% per annum. A pronounced “risk-on” sentiment emerged during the month as several new trade agreements were announced. This boosted global equities and pushed up bond yields, particularly in the US. Short-term US Treasury yields rose sharply, by around 24 basis points, reflecting the expectation of a delay in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Although the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve both held policy rates steady, markets continued to price in cuts (with the Fed expected to act in September), adding to yield curve volatility. Meanwhile, major US equity indices reached new all-time highs, driven by robust earnings from the technology and AI sectors, as well as renewed investor confidence following adjustments to trade policy. The US dollar experienced significant volatility in July. After starting the month weakly amid softer inflation and dovish Fed remarks. The dollar rebounded midway through the month as stronger economic data and cautious language from the Fed reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts. By 30 July, the dollar index had rebounded to around 103.6 from an earlier four-month low, but it remained down by around 8–11% year to date on a trade-weighted basis. Major currency pairs remained within their established ranges, while the yen experienced periods of strength as the Bank of Japan suggested potential changes to its policies. July was a dramatic month for copper. Prices on New York’s COMEX soared in early July, rising by over 13% at one point, after President Trump unexpectedly floated the idea of a 50% tariff on copper imports, which far surpassed market expectations. In a stunning reversal, however, refined copper was abruptly exempted from the tariff until at least January 2027, causing the premium to evaporate and leaving US warehouses with stocks at a 21-year high.
Investment strategy
Despite the announcement of new trade agreements, particularly with Japan, which will see a 15% tariff imposed on all products imported into the United States, followed by the European Union with an identical rate, fears of a global economic slowdown remain central. The erratic announcements regarding the final level of customs duties have caused more uncertainty, which is a key factor for markets and investment, than can be seen in the published data to date. However, the latest job creation figures, particularly the revised estimates for recent months, serve as a stark reminder that difficulties may lie ahead for the US economy. The latest inflation figures have also been reassuring, but the concrete effect of the tariffs remains to be seen. Against the backdrop of a potential economic slowdown and stable inflation of around 3%, the Fed has chosen to maintain the status quo. J Powell's inflexible stance has further damaged his already poor relationship with Donald Trump. The US President is demanding a rate cut to ease the burden of growing US debt — a position also held by David Warsh, who is tipped as a potential replacement for Powell as head of the US central bank. Despite these uncertainties, the markets are optimistic, with signs of euphoria in some cases. This does not yet call into question our risk-on positioning. However, we remain alert to a potential reversal in market dynamics and sentiment, which could indicate the need for greater caution.
Replacing Powell Would Not Guarantee Lower Short-Term Rates
Portfolio Activity/ News
Throughout July, we largely maintained our risk-on stance. As a reminder, this was characterised by a preference for credit over government bonds in the fixed-income segment and a resolutely growth-oriented approach to equities. This approach served us well while the credit market remained buoyant. However, we continued to diversify the bond portion by introducing positions in bonds issued by financial companies, such as banks and insurance companies. This allowed us to capture the excess yield resulting from the subordination of the securities. We reiterate our cautious stance on long-term government bonds (10+ years). In this segment of the bond market, we are maintaining a position with an average maturity of between five and ten years. The average interest sensitivity of our bond portfolio is approximately 4.5 years. We maintain a favourable bias towards technology-related sectors, especially those that benefit from artificial intelligence, in all regions. In terms of the geographical distribution of our equity holdings, we have increased our exposure to US equities slightly, while maintaining significant exposure to European and emerging market equities. Despite the uncertainty caused by trade tensions, the latter have achieved impressive growth since the beginning of the year. Within our alternative investment portfolio, while recent performance has been mixed following a strong first half of the year, we maintain a high level of conviction in our strategic exposure to key alternative investment trends and strategies.
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Perspectivas | Segundo Semestre 2025
Resumen ejecutivo
El primer semestre de 2025 estuvo marcado por una notable volatilidad de los mercados, impulsada por la mayor incertidumbre política y las tensiones geopolíticas. El «índice del miedo» alcanzó su tercer nivel más alto de la historia. Durante este periodo, las bolsas europeas y de mercados emergentes (ME) superaron con creces a la estadounidense, sobre todo si se miden en divisa local. Paralelamente, los rendimientos de los bonos a largo plazo repuntaron ante la preocupación por los déficits fiscales, especialmente en Estados Unidos.
La elevada incertidumbre y el aumento de las barreras comerciales frenarán sensiblemente el crecimiento mundial, mientras que la inflación solo se moderará de forma paulatina. Es probable que los bancos centrales mantengan una postura prudente, de modo que no se esperan recortes de tipos antes de septiembre.
Entre los principales riesgos figura una escalada del conflicto en Oriente Medio, a pesar de la calma actual tras el bombardeo de la aviación estadounidense contra la infraestructura nuclear iraní. Otros riesgos son la reanudación de las presiones inflacionistas debido a la interrupción del suministro de petróleo, por ejemplo a través del cierre del estrecho de Ormuz, y la escalada arancelaria, que podría desencadenar recesiones en las principales economías.
Perspectivas económicas
El crecimiento global se mantendrá por debajo de los promedios prepandemia de alrededor del 2.3% al 2.9%.
La moderación del crecimiento esta generalizada, con desaceleraciones notables en Estados Unidos y China.
Las barreras comerciales elevadas y persistentes y los aranceles son obstáculos significativos para el crecimiento global.
Se espera que la inflación continúe moderándose a nivel mundial, aunque a un ritmo más lento.
Se prevé que los bancos centrales mantengan una postura cautelosa.
La Reserva Federal de EE. UU. podría mantener las tasas estables durante gran parte de 2025.
El gasto para sostener la economía llevará a un aumento de los déficits fiscales y niveles de deuda.
Riesgos claves
Políticas monetarias y fiscales divergentes y cambiantes rápidamente podrían ajustar las condiciones financieras y desestabilizar los mercados.
Los conflictos y sanciones podrían interrumpir el comercio, los suministros de energía y los flujos de inversión.
El aumento de la deuda pública y los desequilibrios fiscales podrían limitar la flexibilidad de las políticas y aumentar las primas de riesgo soberano.
Las presiones inflacionistas renovadas podrían descarrilar los planes de flexibilización monetaria, prolongar los ciclos de endurecimiento y aumentar los costos de endeudamiento.
Aumentos adicionales de aranceles o re-escaladas podrían desencadenar recesiones en las principales economías y empeorar el crecimiento global.
Convicciones de inversión
Moderada sobreponderación en crédito, especialmente en los sectores de alto rendimiento y grado de inversión.
Enfoque en bonos soberanos de vencimiento intermedio, ya que se espera que la curva de rendimientos se mantenga ascendente debido a los déficits fiscales y las primas de riesgo (el "sweet spot").
El oro sigue siendo una cobertura frente a sorpresas inflacionarias y, más importante aún, a los riesgos geopolíticos.
Las empresas de mediana capitalización todavía presentan oportunidades para la expansión de valoraciones y el crecimiento de beneficios, lo que las convierte en una adición atractiva a la asignación de grandes capitalizaciones.
Las acciones de grandes capitalizaciones en EE. UU., particularmente en los sectores tecnológicos y de crecimiento, se están beneficiando de la IA y la innovación, por lo que deben ser favorecidas dentro de la asignación de renta variable.
Los vientos en contra de las divisas y los descuentos relativos de valoración frente al dólar estadounidense apoyan las acciones de mercados emergentes. Se justifica una posición moderadamente sobreponderada.
En Europa, el estímulo fiscal en defensa e infraestructura podría compensar algunos de los vientos en contra causados por las perturbaciones comerciales.
ÍNDICE
- PERSPECTIVAS 2° SEMESTRE 2025 : RESUMEN
- PRIMER SEMESTRE : ASPECTOS MAS DESTACADOS
- PERSPECTIVAS PARA EL 2° SEMESTRE 2025
- CONVICCIONES DE INVERSIÓN
- ASIGNACIÓN POR CLASE DE ACTIVOS
Descargar las perspectivas para el segundo semestre 2025
Newsletter | June 2025
The US Congress has passed a tax bill that will boost the budget deficit.
7.2% PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN MID-CAP INDEX IN MAY
Investment perspective
Geopolitical and economic factors persisted in May, most notably the ongoing impact of punitive tariffs introduced by the U.S. administration in early April, which continued to reverberate across global markets. Although temporary tariff reprieves have calmed the situation, the fundamental direction of US trade policy remains restrictive, with the potential for further escalation or prolonged uncertainty, which could affect global growth and inflation. This dual pressure complicates monetary policy, especially for the Federal Reserve, and affects market expectations. As we pointed out earlier this year, divergent monetary policies have become the norm. The uncertainty induced by the tariffs led the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while the European Central Bank (ECB) remained on its path of gradual easing. Overall, this could result in higher terminal U.S. interest rates due to reduced capital inflows and an increased risk premium. This dynamic could further steepen the yield curve as investors demand higher compensation for heightened uncertainty. After credit spreads widened sharply, the 90-day tariff reprieve for certain countries eased some fears partly, leading to a retracement in credit spreads. U.S. investment grade (IG) corporate spreads tightened from 116 basis points (bps) in early April to roughly 88 bps by the end of May, while U.S. high yield (HY) corporate spreads narrowed from 450 bps to 315 bps. Following a sharp sell-off in early April, during which the primary U.S. index fell by over 10.5% in two days, May saw a strong recovery in the equity markets. The Magnificent Seven experienced a notable rebound during the month, as did heavy tech-weighted and growth-oriented indices. Nvidia and Tesla led the way with impressive returns of around +24.1% and +22.8%, respectively, in May. Despite the headwinds encountered in the early part of the year, the Magnificent Seven have demonstrated resilient earnings growth. Goldman Sachs projects earnings per share growth for the group of around 28% in 2025, which is significantly higher than the expected 9% growth of the broader market index. The bank also noted that the group is currently trading at its lowest valuation levels in two years, which could present an attractive entry point. The U.S. dollar has registered weakness against the euro for the fourth consecutive month. However, the pressure eased somewhat with a loss of 0.4%, bringing the year-to-date loss to over 9%.
Investment strategy
Although market sentiment has improved with the recovery in consumer confidence and a slight easing of tariff fears, the complexity of fiscal and trade dynamics remains. The outlook for the U.S. fiscal deficit has deteriorated significantly, with the Congressional Budget Office and Fitch Ratings projecting deficits in excess of 7.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. A comprehensive tax and spending bill that is currently making its way through the Senate is expected to increase the debt by trillions, with little prospect of significant spending cuts. This fiscal deterioration is putting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, as evidenced by the recent 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since October 2023. Market sentiment continues to be affected by instability in trade policy, with the risk that tariff-related disruptions will impact key economic indicators such as GDP and corporate earnings. Nevertheless, recent signs of recovery in US consumer confidence could bolster domestic demand. In light of the fiscal outlook and the increasing supply of long-dated Treasuries, we are exercising particular caution regarding the long end of the curve and are favouring the front end to mitigate the risk of further yield increases. Market sentiment indicators have shown a swift and significant recovery from the extreme pessimism observed in April. This recovery in sentiment has coincided with a rebound in growth and technology stocks, including the 'Magnificent Seven', suggesting that momentum remains a key driver.
Fed is facing the possibility of both higher inflation and weaker economic performance
Portfolio Activity/ News
Over the month, our portfolios benefited significantly from the market recovery, particularly in terms of our equity and credit allocations. We maintained our exposure to European and US credit, encompassing investment grade (IG), high yield (HY) and emerging corporate bonds, while continuing to exercise caution regarding long-maturity bonds, particularly in the US. Despite the very different dynamics at play in Europe, the risk of the curve steepening further has led us to reduce our exposure to long-term government bonds and retain only intermediate-term bonds. Although we marginally increased our equity allocation, adding US growth and emerging market exposure, we maintained a structural preference for European equities, driven by attractive valuations and supportive monetary policy dynamics. European assets are well placed to benefit from the unfolding US fiscal agenda and shifting allocations away from US assets, which are still under-represented in most portfolios, as well as from gradual dollar depreciation. Having tactically increased our equity exposure earlier in the month, we are now adopting a slightly more cautious approach, as market sentiment indicators have swung rapidly from deeply depressed levels to mild complacency. We are increasingly inclined to reduce our US dollar exposure further, anticipating that the deteriorating fiscal deficit and persistent economic uncertainty will weigh on the currency. However, we believe it is still too early to reduce risk across the entire portfolio, as the recovery is ongoing and we are positioned only slightly overweight.
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